国内 电(dian)煤招标采购单价(jia)指标（CECI）预(yu)算编制单位(wei)室发(fa)(fa)(fa)表(biao)(biao)的《CECI系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)数(shu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)(shi)(shi)阐述周报》（2025年第21期）表(biao)(biao)现(xian)，CECI近海系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)数(shu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)(shi)(shi)中发(fa)(fa)(fa)发(fa)(fa)(fa)高(gao)热值煤(mei)种现(xian)货平台交易(yi)限(xian)价(jia)(jia)房(fang)价(jia)(jia)小范围急剧增涨(zhang)。曹妃甸系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)数(shu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)(shi)(shi)小范围下滑。原产(chan)系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)数(shu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)(shi)(shi)发(fa)(fa)(fa)发(fa)(fa)(fa)高(gao)热值煤(mei)种现(xian)货平台交易(yi)限(xian)价(jia)(jia)价(jia)(jia)延(yan)续下滑。CECI购(gou)置部门职业经理人系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)数(shu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)(shi)(shi)维持十一国庆(qing)期长(zhang)期处在(zai)膨胀时间间隔(ge)，分项目系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)数(shu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)(shi)(shi)中，除水运分系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)数(shu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)(shi)(shi)长(zhang)期处在(zai)扩大时间间隔(ge)外(wai)，某些(xie)分系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)数(shu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)(shi)(shi)均长(zhang)期处在(zai)膨胀时间间隔(ge)，除库(ku)存管理分系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)数(shu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)(shi)(shi)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增长(zhang)率同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)升时外(wai)，某些(xie)分系(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)数(shu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)(shi)(shi)均同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增长(zhang)率同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)急剧增涨(zhang)。
一、市场情况综述
散煤(mei)热(re)发火(huo)(huo)(huo)火(huo)(huo)(huo)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)出(chu)产(chan)的方面，全國(guo)大组成部分(fen)沿海(hai)地区(qu)随着(zhe)气温(wen)再次转暖(nuan)，苏北(bei)等区(qu)用户聚焦(jiao)取暖(nuan)相继停此，往往散煤(mei)热(re)发火(huo)(huo)(huo)火(huo)(huo)(huo)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)来(lai)发充电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)流显示(shi)、集中供暖(nuan)量(liang)、电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)日(ri)耗(hao)和入厂(chang)煤(mei)量(liang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)额(e)(e)(e)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)额(e)(e)(e)率(lv)(lv)均延续减(jian)低。热(re)发火(huo)(huo)(huo)火(huo)(huo)(huo)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)库存(cun)(cun)盘点除(chu)东北(bei)地区(qu)区(qu)月(yue)(yue)(yue)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)额(e)(e)(e)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)额(e)(e)(e)率(lv)(lv)减(jian)低外，苏北(bei)、苏北(bei)、南边(bian)等区(qu)热(re)发火(huo)(huo)(huo)火(huo)(huo)(huo)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)月(yue)(yue)(yue)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)额(e)(e)(e)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)额(e)(e)(e)率(lv)(lv)均区(qu)别系数回落(luo)。通过(guo)中电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)联液体能源计算数据(ju)资料，本(ben)月(yue)(yue)(yue)收录能量(liang)企业液体能源计算的来(lai)发电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)投资控(kong)股公司散煤(mei)热(re)发火(huo)(huo)(huo)火(huo)(huo)(huo)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)每(mei)(mei)日(ri)来(lai)发充电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)流显示(shi)月(yue)(yue)(yue)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)额(e)(e)(e)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)额(e)(e)(e)率(lv)(lv)少(shao)5.8%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)少(shao)4.1%。每(mei)(mei)日(ri)集中供暖(nuan)量(liang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)额(e)(e)(e)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)额(e)(e)(e)率(lv)(lv)少(shao)16.6%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)额(e)(e)(e)20.3%。每(mei)(mei)日(ri)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)耗(hao)量(liang)少(shao)6.2%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)少(shao)3.2%。各举，海(hai)路运(yun)输车热(re)发火(huo)(huo)(huo)火(huo)(huo)(huo)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)每(mei)(mei)日(ri)耗(hao)煤(mei)量(liang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)额(e)(e)(e)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)额(e)(e)(e)率(lv)(lv)少(shao)6.3%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)少(shao)9.3%；每(mei)(mei)日(ri)入厂(chang)煤(mei)量(liang)少(shao)3.3%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)少(shao)9.6%。散煤(mei)热(re)发火(huo)(huo)(huo)火(huo)(huo)(huo)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)存(cun)(cun)煤(mei)9951万吨，去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)额(e)(e)(e)450万吨。
内(nei)外(wai)山(shan)(shan)西焦炭主原产(chan)(chan)地层(ceng)面(mian)，大一些(xie)煤(mei)(mei)厂坚持正常人生(sheng)产(chan)(chan)加工，国(guo)家(jia)煤(mei)(mei)厂发(fa)运以保(bao)供及(ji)内(nei)外(wai)产(chan)(chan)生(sheng)为中(zhong)心，某(mou)个(ge)民(min)办(ban)煤(mei)(mei)厂拒绝(jue)绝(jue)产(chan)(chan)，整体性(xing)山(shan)(shan)西焦炭产(chan)(chan)生(sheng)小范(fan)围振幅。近几年(nian)(nian)煤(mei)(mei)电(dian)企业主买(mai)(mai)卖交(jiao)易量仍高(gao)过今(jin)年(nian)(nian)盈亏，非电(dian)互(hu)联网行业仅坚持极富刚性(xing)需(xu)求选择，候车室和(he)(he)国(guo)家(jia)团体购(gou)入单价(jia)以后下跌(die)，商贸商和(he)(he)行业操作(zuo)者考虑心态较(jiao)浓，行业买(mai)(mai)卖交(jiao)易学习气(qi)氛萧(xiao)条，外(wai)盘单价(jia)持续时间(jian)小范(fan)围减(jian)少。
码头市場(chang)(chang)各(ge)方面，受铁路(lu)交通物流费用优惠(hui)活动(dong)、平(ping)(ping)均温度上升(sheng)、空调机组(zu)检查维修(xiu)等多(duo)大缘由影(ying)向，调整(zheng)量(liang)综(zong)合稍低(di)于调出量(liang)，码头库(ku)存(cun)积(ji)压(ya)高位置自激(ji)振荡执(zhi)行。在(zai)现货平(ping)(ping)台市場(chang)(chang)价(jia)格多(duo)少(shao)周到(dao)下跌季度长协价(jia)的情(qing)况(kuang)报告下，占多(duo)数纺织品(pin)经销商对明天股(gu)市看空(kong)芯(xin)态更(geng)强，费用(yong)查询(xun)继续小量(liang)再降，极(ji)少数(shu)(shu)末(mo)端企(qi)业主(zhu)询(xun)货积(ji)极(ji)主(zhu)动性提(ti)高了，但仍以(yi)通过低(di)价采购合(he)同为重，实际情(qing)况平均(jun)价额量(liang)似(si)的(de)，现货交易平均(jun)价额费用(yong)小量(liang)回(hui)调(diao)函数(shu)(shu)。
结合看到，西北暖气季一(yi)样(yang) 结束了，电(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)需要(yao)转淡，然(ran)煤(mei)(mei)水泥厂电(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)日耗环(huan)比(bi)同(tong)比(bi)的(de)(de)传承下行(xing)速(su)度(du)。电(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)供(gong)给与需求相(xiang)应宽裕，中(zhong)中(zhong)下游库存量(liang)的(de)(de)压力较(jiao)大的(de)(de)，行(xing)业(ye)上煤(mei)(mei)其实(shi)转化率量(liang)一(yi)样(yang) ，坑口和(he)航运(yun)动(dong)业(ye)上煤(mei)(mei)价仍稳定自我中(zhong)心运(yun)动(dong)。
二、CECI指数分析
CECI沿海指数5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克现货成交价较上期分别下降4元/吨、1元/吨。从样本情况看，5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克规格品现货成交价样本价格区间分别为682-687元/吨、601-604元/吨，且从成交时间看，多分布在本周前半段。从样本热值分布看，4500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克、5500千卡/千克样本在总量中占比分别为30.7％、48.3％、21.1％。
图3 CECI沿海指数综合价走势图
CECI曹妃甸指数5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克和4500千卡/千克平均价格分别为686.4元/吨、597.6元/吨和519.8元/吨，电煤现货价格小幅下行，各规格品本周价格平均值比上周分别下降6.6元/吨、5.6元/吨和4.4元/吨。现货交易平均数量有所减少，其中5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克数量略有减少，4500千卡/千克样本数量基本持平。
图4 CECI曹妃甸指数走势图
CECI进口指数到岸标煤单价860元/吨，较上期持平。现货价格中，各规格品热值进口煤现货价格涨跌不一，其中太仓港（灵便型）3200千卡/千克价格环比上涨6元/吨，广州港（巴拿马型）4600千卡/千克价格环比下降8元/吨。印尼HBA新政逐渐趋于稳定，但受斋月及雨季的影响，外矿对低热值煤种报价多数保持坚挺。国内沿海电厂继续释放远期5月份交货的招标采购，尤其华南地区电厂较集中的电力集团连续批量发布采购低热值印尼煤招标，整体投标价较上期小幅下降。近期进口煤市场对澳煤、俄罗斯煤询货略有增加，但仍以低价采购为主，进口高热值煤价格缺乏有力支撑，现货价格继续偏弱运行。
表1 CECI进口指数
CECI采购经理人指数连续11期处于收缩区间。其中，供给分指数连续11期处于收缩区间，表明电煤供给量继续下降，降幅有所扩大。需求分指数连续11期处于收缩区间，表明电煤需求量继续下降，降幅有所扩大。库存分指数连续11期处于收缩区间，表明电煤库存量继续下降，降幅有所收窄。价格分指数连续9期处于收缩区间，表明电煤价格继续下降，降幅有所扩大。航运分指数连续3期处于扩张区间，表明电煤航运价格继续增加，增幅有所收窄。
表2 CECI采购经理人指数
三、相关信息和建议
利用(yong)国内出口(kou)货(huo)物运输物流(liu)部保(bao)通保(bao)畅操(cao)作(zuo)官员班级辦公室污染监测一览数剧(ju)，9月(yue)(yue)10日(ri)-9月(yue)(yue)16日(ri)，我国出口(kou)货(huo)物运输物流(liu)出口(kou)货(huo)物运输物流(liu)部井然有序操(cao)作(zuo)，在(zai)其中：部委(wei)铁(tie)道累加运输物流(liu)出口(kou)货(huo)物7833.2十万吨，月(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)环比上升(sheng)1.98%；我国迅速铁(tie)路桥累加货(huo)运车通过5247.2万辆(liang)，月(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)环比上升(sheng)3.45%。
可(ke)根据国内统计表格局(ju)动态数据，2025年1-4月(yue)份，山东省煤(mei)质产销量7653三(san)万吨，环比发展7.7%，相比增速(su)比前年14月(yue)份越(yue)来越(yue)快3.五类点；规上产业发剩余电量14925000万kw时(shi)，环比上升1.3%。
基于我国(guo)能(neng)源开发局数据信(xin)息，2025年(nian)1-二(er)月份，全社(she)会性电(dian)费量当年(nian)度(du)15564亿Kw时，比(bi)增加(jia)1.3%。从(cong)分制(zhi)造业电(dian)费看，一号、二(er)、三制(zhi)造业和(he)城乡居民医保家(jia)庭居民家(jia)庭生存(cun)电(dian)费量主(zhu)要比(bi)增加(jia)8.2%、0.9%、3.6%和(he)0.1%。
会按照中电(dian)(dian)联电(dian)(dian)气(qi)这个(ge)行业(ye)生(sheng)物质测(ce)(ce)算，载止4月21日(ri)，列入测(ce)(ce)算的发(fa)(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)公司(si)燃气(qi)发(fa)(fa)(fa)火电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)月底(di)总共使(shi)(shi)用额发(fa)(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)量(liang)相比(bi)减少(shao)4%，本年度度总共使(shi)(shi)用额发(fa)(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)量(liang)相比(bi)减少(shao)8%。燃气(qi)发(fa)(fa)(fa)火电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)耗煤量(liang)月底(di)总共使(shi)(shi)用额相比(bi)减少(shao)4.1%，本年度度总共使(shi)(shi)用额相比(bi)减少(shao)7%。燃气(qi)发(fa)(fa)(fa)火电(dian)(dian)站(zhan)焦炭存储(chu)优于前年3d开奖(jiang)历(li)(li)史430万(wan)吨，存储(chu)能(neng)够(gou)用时间较上一(yi)年3d开奖(jiang)历(li)(li)史提升1.8天。
近期，全国多地陆续停止供暖，发电、供暖用煤进入淡季，转入检修的电厂机组开始增多，大部分沿海电厂机组负荷较低。非电企业复工及基建加快，非电耗煤量有所提升，但在长协煤供应及高库存支撑下，整体市场采购需求释放仍显不足。北方港调出量与调入量基本持平，港口去库速度依旧缓慢，其中秦皇岛港库存长时间保持在700万吨以上的高位水平，疏港压力较大。在坑口和港口库存双双高企压力之下，煤矿存在被动减产可能，同时，进口低卡煤价格倒挂也可能对内贸形成一定支撑。综合判断，短期动力煤市场价格将缓慢下跌继续探底。建议电力企业关注后期港口去库进度和水泥等非电煤需求释放情况，维持合理库存。
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