事件：永泰能源发布2023 年年度报告及2024 年一季度报告。2023 年全年公司实现营业收入301.20 亿元，同比下降15.29%；归母净利润为22.66 亿元，同比增长18.67%。2024 年一季度，公司实现营业收入73.21 亿元，同比增长3.58%；归母净利润为4.67 亿元，同比增长11.41%。

煤炭业务：产销量稳健爬升，产能扩张高效落地。

2023 年(nian)(nian)，品(pin)牌(pai)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)使用量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)金融产(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)产(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)供进(jin)口(kou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)得(de)以延续增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)新形(xing)势，焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)产(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)的(de)生(sheng)产(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)数量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)为1297.23 万(wan)(wan)立方(fang)(fang)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)，比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)17.58%，各(ge)举(ju)精煤产(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)的(de)生(sheng)产(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)数量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)328.99 万(wan)(wan)立方(fang)(fang)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)，比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速降(jiang)低2.30%；焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)进(jin)口(kou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)为1299.37 万(wan)(wan)立方(fang)(fang)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)，比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)17.98%，各(ge)举(ju)精煤进(jin)口(kou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)327.6 万(wan)(wan)立方(fang)(fang)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)，比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速降(jiang)低3.27%。2024 年(nian)(nian)赛(sai)今年(nian)(nian)一每(mei)季(ji)度(du)(du)(du)(du)、半年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)，品(pin)牌(pai)精煤产(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)供进(jin)口(kou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)渐渐回到正(zheng)确横(heng)向，产(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)的(de)生(sheng)产(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)数量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)67.44 万(wan)(wan)立方(fang)(fang)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)，比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)8.63%；进(jin)口(kou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)61.78 万(wan)(wan)立方(fang)(fang)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)，比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)7.42%。受中上游(you)需要萧条导致，焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)使用量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)成(cheng)(cheng)本将持续抗压，品(pin)牌(pai)2024 年(nian)(nian)赛(sai)今年(nian)(nian)一每(mei)季(ji)度(du)(du)(du)(du)、半年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)使用量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)金融产(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)销售业(ye)务(wu)薪水为21.80 亿(yi)(yi)，比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速降(jiang)低18.15%。品(pin)牌(pai)隶属关系海则滩煤厂(chang)过(guo)程中全面(mian)的(de)开(kai)建开(kai)发(fa)，局(ju)(ju)部过(guo)程中进(jin)程起步，方(fang)(fang)案(an)2026 年(nian)(nian)三今年(nian)(nian)一每(mei)季(ji)度(du)(du)(du)(du)、半年(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)遵(zun)循出煤具体(ti)条件，2027 年(nian)(nian)达(da)成(cheng)(cheng)达(da)产(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)。海则滩煤厂(chang)资(zi)源英(ying)文储量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)11.45 亿(yi)(yi)立方(fang)(fang)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)，出厂(chang)良好医(yi)药化工用煤及(ji)能煤，修编完工后(hou)产(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能已成(cheng)(cheng)定局(ju)(ju)升(sheng)降(jiang)至1000 万(wan)(wan)立方(fang)(fang)米(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)(mi)/年(nian)(nian)。经(jing)品(pin)牌(pai)分步推算，建设完工后(hou)可达(da)成(cheng)(cheng)年(nian)(nian)营业(ye)时间(jian)薪水约90 亿(yi)(yi)、净提成(cheng)(cheng)率润约44 亿(yi)(yi)，并给品(pin)牌(pai)煤电(dian)立体(ti)式(shi)化开(kai)发(fa)牢筑基础性。

电力业务：煤电互补成果显著，装机新增凸显优势。

2023 年(nian)，子品牌(pai)电(dian)(dian)(dian)网(wang)业务(wu)范(fan)围(wei)实(shi)现目标(biao)开(kai)张(zhang)纯收入167.11 6亿(yi)，月(yue)(yue)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)延(yan)长(zhang)6.28%；开(kai)始反(fan)击(ji)于山(shan)西(xi)煤炭收费下进行，购买价(jia)格较(jiao)(jiao)低，开(kai)张(zhang)价(jia)格月(yue)(yue)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)较(jiao)(jiao)低11.18%，带(dai)动力毛利(li)额率(lv)月(yue)(yue)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)延(yan)长(zhang)17.55pct。充(chong)电(dian)(dian)(dian)电(dian)(dian)(dian)流(liu)部(bu)分，2023 年(nian)子品牌(pai)达到(dao)(dao)发充(chong)电(dian)(dian)(dian)电(dian)(dian)(dian)流(liu)373.49 亿(yi)Kw时，拨号在(zai)网(wang)络上(shang)充(chong)电(dian)(dian)(dian)电(dian)(dian)(dian)流(liu)353.95亿(yi)Kw时，较(jiao)(jiao)前年(nian)差(cha)别是(shi)延(yan)长(zhang)4.16%和4.10%；2024 年(nian)个季节度上(shang)市充(chong)电(dian)(dian)(dian)电(dian)(dian)(dian)流(liu)大(da)幅(fu)度的(de)延(yan)长(zhang)，达到(dao)(dao)发充(chong)电(dian)(dian)(dian)电(dian)(dian)(dian)流(liu)99.99 亿(yi)Kw时，拨号在(zai)网(wang)络上(shang)充(chong)电(dian)(dian)(dian)电(dian)(dian)(dian)流(liu)94.70 亿(yi)Kw时，较(jiao)(jiao)去年(nian)同期差(cha)别是(shi)延(yan)长(zhang)14.15%和14.23%。一键(jian)一键(jian)装(zhuang)机系统(tong)部(bu)分，2023 年(nian)子品牌(pai)确认丹阳中鑫华海控(kong)住权，新添(tian)加入了一键(jian)一键(jian)装(zhuang)机系统(tong)体积(ji)30万(wan)Kw截至(zhi)2023 年(nian)5 月(yue)(yue)投入运营(ying)，总一键(jian)一键(jian)装(zhuang)机系统(tong)体积(ji)超(chao)过900 万(wan)Kw升降至(zhi)918.44 万(wan)Kw，月(yue)(yue)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)延(yan)长(zhang)2.38%，进那步明显增强子品牌(pai)管理的(de)本质良性竟(jing)争力。

储能业务：全产业链架构有序完善，新质生产力加速构建。

2023 年集团(tuan)(tuan)不(bu)(bu)多(duo)(duo)工(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)坚持问题(ti)导向扎实推(tui)进储(chu)蓄(xu)能(neng)量(liang)转化，活(huo)动施(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)个(ge)(ge)问题(ti)，集团(tuan)(tuan)不(bu)(bu)多(duo)(duo)工(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)所在敦煌(huang)市汇(hui)宏(hong)矿(kuang)山机械開發(fa)不(bu)(bu)多(duo)(duo)集团(tuan)(tuan)不(bu)(bu)多(duo)(duo)工(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)6000 吨(dun)/年高(gao)纯(chun)五阳极(ji)钝(dun)化二(er)钒(fan)(fan)(fan)选冶生产(chan)方式线（这(zhei)期3000 吨(dun)/年）已(yi)经和2023 年6 月(yue)底如(ru)(ru)约(yue)施(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)施(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)，保(bao)守估(gu)计2024 年春夏(xia)秋(qiu)冬度开工(gong)(gong)仪(yi)(yi)式，达顺产(chan)将侵占在中(zhong)国内(nei)(nei)地(di)石(shi)煤提钒(fan)(fan)(fan)20%以(yi)内(nei)(nei)的(de)(de)领域比例(li)；集团(tuan)(tuan)不(bu)(bu)多(duo)(duo)工(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)所在张家港德泰储(chu)蓄(xu)能(neng)量(liang)装置不(bu)(bu)多(duo)(duo)集团(tuan)(tuan)不(bu)(bu)多(duo)(duo)工(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)1000MW 全(quan)钒(fan)(fan)(fan)液(ye)流(liu)干(gan)电池(chi)板(ban)储(chu)蓄(xu)能(neng)量(liang)装置开发基础（这(zhei)期300MW）已(yi)经和2023 年6 月(yue)底如(ru)(ru)约(yue)施(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)施(shi)(shi)工(gong)(gong)，这(zhei)期活(huo)动保(bao)守估(gu)计2024 年春夏(xia)秋(qiu)冬度开工(gong)(gong)仪(yi)(yi)式，达顺产(chan)将侵占当下(xia)在中(zhong)国内(nei)(nei)地(di)全(quan)钒(fan)(fan)(fan)液(ye)流(liu)干(gan)电池(chi)板(ban)10%以(yi)内(nei)(nei)的(de)(de)领域比例(li)。材料(liao)收集个(ge)(ge)问题(ti)，集团(tuan)(tuan)不(bu)(bu)多(duo)(duo)工(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)顺利通过股本(ben)融(rong)资(zi)完成(cheng)了(le)江西省石(shi)台县(xian)龙岭钒(fan)(fan)(fan)矿(kuang)地(di)下(xia)开采权，扩变(bian)大了(le)峰值享受0.93%、初(chu)审查证134.74 万(wan)立(li)方米的(de)(de)五阳极(ji)钝(dun)化二(er)钒(fan)(fan)(fan)材料(liao)量(liang)，进1步(bu)加(jia)变(bian)大了(le)集团(tuan)(tuan)不(bu)(bu)多(duo)(duo)工(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)在高(gao)质钒(fan)(fan)(fan)矿(kuang)材料(liao)上的(de)(de)胜机。

盈利预测与估值

你们预期企业2024-2026 年(nian)进(jin)行归母净收益率润26.73/28.9/30.7 6亿，月(yue)环比倍增17.96%/8.13%/6.25%；EPS 为(wei)0.12/0.13/0.14 元，相匹配的PE 为(wei)11.22/10.38/9.77 倍，保护“持股”信(xin)用评级。

风险提示

煤价(jia)回(hui)落(luo)超实(shi)(shi)(shi)际想(xiang)象；媒碳产油量不若实(shi)(shi)(shi)际想(xiang)象；钒液流充电业务落(luo)实(shi)(shi)(shi)不若实(shi)(shi)(shi)际想(xiang)象。